A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
